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En este documento se analizan las revisiones en tiempo real de las estimaciones de la brecha de producción (output gap) publicadas por la Comisión Europea para 15 países durante el período 2002-2014. De acuerdo con nuestro análisis, las revisiones en tiempo real de las brechas de...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012529564
Incluye bibliografía ; ¿Cuál es el efecto de la política fiscal sobre la actividad económica? A pesar de la extensa literatura existente, la estimación del llamado «multiplicador fiscal» sigue suponiendo un desafío para los economistas. Además, la magnitud de dicho multiplicador...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012530416
La crisis de deuda soberana en la zona del euro ha aumentado el interés por los indicadores de alerta temprana. El principal objetivo de estos indicadores es anticipar la acumulación de desequilibrios fiscales para facilitar la prevención de crisis con las políticas fi scales y...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012530446
What are the output responses to fiscal policy? Despite important advances reported in the literature, quantifying the size of the fiscal multiplier remains a challenge. Indeed, the quest to estimate a unique fiscal multiplier is probably an ill-posed one. The magnitude of the multiplier may...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014156595
In an influential paper, Devries et al. (2011) construct narrative series of tax- and spending-based fiscal adjustments for a panel of OECD countries. In this paper, we find that the adjustments based on spending cuts can be predicted on the basis of past output growth and other macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013020677
The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area has increased the interest in early warning indicators, with the aim to indicate the build up of fiscal stress early on and to facilitate crisis prevention by a timely counteraction of fiscal and macroeconomic policies. This paper presents possible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013049852
The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area has raised interest in early warning indicators, aimed at signalling the build-up of fiscal stress in advance and helping prevent crises by means of a timely counteraction of fiscal and macroeconomic policies. This paper presents possible improvements...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013050271
There is evidence in the literature of fiscal consolidation episodes producing (non-Keynesian) expansionary effects (e.g. Alesina and Ardagna, 1998). We replicate this result for a panel of OECD countries under exogeneity of the fiscal tightening decision, and provide evidence that this decision...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128114
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