We test and report on time series modelling and forecasting using several US. Leading economic indicators (LEI) as an input to forecasting real US. GDP and the unemployment rate. These time series have been addressed before, but our results are more statistically significant using more recently...

Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Contents -- Author Biography -- Preface -- Part I Theory, Methods and Models -- Chapter 1 The -legacy -- 1.1 The Origins… -- 1.1.1 The Quest for Causality -- 1.2 The Original Concept: THETA as in THErmosTAt -- 1.2.1 Background: A Decomposition Approach to...

Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Contents -- Author Biography -- Preface -- Part I Theory, Methods and Models -- Chapter 1 The -legacy -- 1.1 The Origins… -- 1.1.1 The Quest for Causality -- 1.2 The Original Concept: THETA as in THErmosTAt -- 1.2.1 Background: A Decomposition Approach to...

Surveys on density forecasts of macroeconomic variables that do not available until recently provide one additional moment restriction, uncertainty, for testing and exploring the implications of various theories on expectation formation. This paper first documents the persistent dispersion in...