In diesem Papier evaluieren wir für 15 europäische Staaten, inwiefern Beschäftigungserwartungen die Prognosegüte des Erwerbstätigenwachstums verbessert. Unser Beobachtungszeitraum beginnt mit dem ersten Quartal 1998 und endet mit dem vierten Quartal 2014. Mit In-Sample- und...

In this study, we systematically evaluate the potential of a bunch of survey-based indicators from different economic branches to forecasting export growth across a multitude of European countries. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyses reveal that the best-performing indicators beat a well-specified...

In this paper, we disentangle tax revenue forecast errors into influences stemming from wrong macroeconomic assumptions and false predictions of the elasticities linking the tax base to its corresponding tax type. Across six tax types and the overall tax sum for Germany, we find a heterogeneous...

In this paper, we ask whether it is possible to forecast gross value-added (GVA) and its sectoral subcomponents at the regional level. With an autoregressive distributed lag model we forecast total and sectoral GVA for one German state (Saxony) with more than 300 indicators from different...

In this paper, we assess the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts at the regional level using a large data set at quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden- Württemberg) and Eastern Germany. We overcome the problem of a...

Auf europäischer Ebene steht aktuell die Neuabgrenzung der Fördergebiete für die EU-Strukturfonds der Förderperiode 2014 bis 2020 zur Debatte. Ob eine Region förderfähig ist, hängt von der regionalen Wirtschaftskraft im Vergleich zum EU-Durchschnitt ab. Bei Bemessung anhand aktuell...

Globalization has led to huge increases in import volumes, but the literature on import forecasting is still in its infancy. We introduce the first leading indicator especially constructed for total import growth, the so-called Import Climate. It builds on the idea that the import demand of the...