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Biases of professional exchange rate forecasts : psychological explanations and an experimentally based comparison to novices

Leitner, Johannes; Schmidt, Robert; Bofinger, Peter - 2003

reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat native … environment, we analyse the forecasting behaviour of students experimentally, using a simulated currency series. Our results … indicate that a topically oriented trend adjustment behaviour (TOTA) is a general characteristic of human forecasting behaviour …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010498976

Biases of professional exchange rate forecasts : psychological explanations and an experimentally based comparison to novices

Leitner, Johannes; Schmidt, Robert; Bofinger, Peter - 2003

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001900767

The Implications of an Ageing Population for the UK Economy

Young, Garry - 2005

This paper considers the likely development of aggregate living standards in the United Kingdom over the course of this century and some of the risks to this outlook. It argues that even under relatively cautious assumptions about technological progress and capital accumulation, aggregate living...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014105744

Real Term Structure Forecasts of Consumption Growth

Argyropoulos, Efthymios - 2014

spread with longer term interest rate in forecasting future real consumption growth, over different periods ahead …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013064620

What Our Market Return Forecasts Really Mean : Convexity in Equity Returns and its Implications for Investment Sizing

Haghani, Victor - 2019

You're probably familiar, at least in passing, with the 'convexity' of long-term bonds - i.e. that yields dropping 1% produce a bigger price move than yields rising 1%. A significant amount of brainpower has gone into understanding all the ramifications of this convexity in the fixed income...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012902324

Covariance Forecasting in Equity Markets

Symitsi, Efthymia - 2018

We compare the performance of popular covariance forecasting models in the context of a portfolio of major European …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012915984

Disagreement, Speculation and Management Forecasts

Dimitrov, Valentin - 2020

Prior research shows that disagreement leads to speculative trading and a speculative premium in stock prices. We examine how managers respond to this speculative premium. Using exogenous variation in speculative trading due to the reconstitution of the Russell 1000/2000 indices, we find that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012838034

Forecasting KOSPI Return Using a Modified Stochastic AdaBoosting

Bae, Sangil; Jeong, Minsoo - 2022

AdaBoost tweaks the sample weight for each training set used in the iterative process, however, it is demonstrated that it provides more correlated errors as the boosting iteration proceeds if models’ accuracy is high enough. Therefore, in this study, we propose a novel way to improve the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013308395

Forecasting Industry Employment for a Resource-Based Economy Using Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Models

Seung, Chang K.; Ahn, Sung K. - In: The Review of Regional Studies 40 (2010) 2, pp. 181-96

Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) models are developed to forecast industry employment for a resource-based economy. Two different types of input-output (I-O) information are used as priors: (i) a reduced-form I-O relationship and (ii) an economic-base version of the I-O information....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010547715

Government forecasts of budget balances under asymmetric loss : international evidence ; conference paper

Pierdzioch, Christian; Ruelke, Jan-Christoph - 2014

We study the loss function of 15 European governments as implied by their budget balance forecasts. Results suggest that the shape of the loss function varies across countries. The loss function becomes more asymmetric as the forecast horizon increases and in advance of parliamentary election....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010482497