We analyze historical business cycles as a sum of short- and medium-term cycles defined for a particular class of unobserved component models. By associating the trend with the low frequencies of the pseudo-spectrum in the frequency domain, manipulation of the spectral bandwidth will allow us to...

In this paper, we apply independent component analysis (ICA) for prediction and signal extraction in multivariate time series data. We compare the performance of three different ICA procedures, JADE, SOBI, and FOTBI that estimate the components exploiting either the non-Gaussianity, or the...