Conference participants foresee another good year for farm income.

Why are forecasts of inflation from VAR models so much worse then their forecasts of real variables? This paper documents that relatively poor performance, and finds that the price equation of a VAR model fitted to U.S. postwar data is poorly specified. Statistical work by other authors has...

The idea of rational expectations has revolutionized macroeconomics. Several authors believe that the idea can be easily tested by a simple econometric procedure. This paper, however, presents several reasons for questioning the relevance of such tests.

An abstract for this article is not available.

An abstract for this article is not available.

Roy H. Webb summarizes the consensus outlook for the current year in “Forecasts 1984.” (A more detailed summary of individual forecasts is available in the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s Business Forecasts 1984.) Most forecasters are calling for a continuation of the above-average...

An abstract for this article is not available

A growing disenchantment with conventional economic models has resulted in increased interest in forecasting with vector autoregressive (VAR) models. In this article, Roy H. Webb develops a statistical procedure for determining the best configuration of explanatory variables in the equations of...

In his article, “Vector Autoregressions as a Tool for Forecast Evaluation,” Roy H. Webb proposes that VAR forecasts be used as a standard of comparison for other forecasts. He begins by explaining how conventional forecasting models are constructed and used, and summarizes a few common...