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This study demonstrates the relationship between exchange rate determination and an endogenous monetary policy represented by Taylor rules. We fill a gap in the literature by focusing on a group of fifteen emerging economies that adopted free-floating exchange rates and inflation targeting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010594691
. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of the TVP-VAR model is evaluated against the simple VAR and ARIMA models, by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008800065
Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. (Rev. Ec. Studies. 72, 1197-1125,2005), we analyzed whether the loss function of a sample of exchange rate forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Using forecasts of the euro/dollar exchange rate, we found that the shape of the loss...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420846
Using forecasts of the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso, we analyze the shape of the loss function of exchange-rate forecasters and the rationality of their forecasts. We find a substantial degree of cross-sectional heterogeneity with respect to the shape of the loss function. While some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420853
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005406593
Using two measures of private information and high-frequency transaction data from the leading interdealer electronic broking system Reuters D2000-2, we examine the association between exchange rate return and contemporaneous order flow and the predictability power of lagged order flow on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011114525
forecasting models reduces forecast errors compared with a single model. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010903380
This paper presents an exchange rate forecasting model which combines the multi-state Markov-switching model with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008552098
method has the best forecasting accuracy with respect to time series models, such as seasonal ARIMA and ARCH models. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008482038
Using forecasts of the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso, we analyze the shape of the loss function of exchange-rate forecasters and the rationality of their forecasts. We find a substantial degree of cross-sectional heterogeneity with respect to the shape of the loss function. While some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009650308