We investigate the predictive content of credit and government interest spreads with respect to the Italian GDP growth. Our analysis with Dynamic Model Averaging identifies when interest spreads were more useful predictors of economic activity: these periods are not limited to the Great...

We build a model to simulate how the euro area market-based financial system may function under stress. The core of the model is a set of representative agents re ecting key economic sectors, which interact in asset, funding, and derivatives markets and face solvency and liquidity constraints on...