made in the first oil price shock of the 1970s. In response to the challenges encountered in forecasting in recent years … and the lessons learnt, the OECD and other international organisations have sought to improve their forecasting techniques …

performance indicates that it is worthwhile to include a broad group of forecasting models based on the different methodologies … other combination methods, the forecasting errors are lower, even in times of high uncertainty. …

-of-sample forecasting and in predicting the most recent crises, a weakness of EWS in general. We also build EWS for low income countries …

series forecasting models for economic variables. In these models, the reduction of the predictors and the modeling and … forecasting of the response y are carried out in two separate and independent phases. We introduce a potentially more attractive … of widely used macroeconomic series data with one or two sufficient reductions delivering similar forecasting performance …