This paper uses a version of Hansen's (1985) Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to forecast the South African economy. The calibrated model, based on annual data over the period of 1970-2000, is used to generate one- to eight-quarters-ahead out-of-sample forecast errors for the...

Stock market movement is driven by numerous factors, both at national and international levels, and because of the multiplicative effect of these factors, the market movement has been majorly random and very less predictable. A number of research studies have been undertaken in the past to model...

Recent findings indicate that macroeconomic survey forecasts are anchoring biased and therefore are inefficient. However, despite highly significant test coefficients a bias adjustment does not improve forecasts' quality. We find that the cognitive bias is a statistical artifact and that the...

The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...

Credible fiscal plans that aim at restoring fiscal sustainability will be essential to counter the present increase in debt levels all across Europe. The macroeconomic scenario of such plans will be crucial. This paper assesses whether there is any advantage in delegating (part of) such power to...

The issue of forecast aggregation is to determine whether it is better to forecast a series directly or instead construct forecasts of its components and then sum these component forecasts. Notwithstanding some underlying theoretical results, it is generally accepted that forecast aggregation is...

What is the probability of high inflation; how high, when? These questions are important to all investors since even the 2% level to which we are accustomed will cut an investor's portfolio by over 17% during a decade. This 2% level is the target of the Federal Reserve, along with near 0%...