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Several studies have found that the cross-section of stock returns reflects a risk premium for bearing downside risk …; however, existing measures of downside risk have poor power for predicting returns. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel … measure of downside risk, the ES-implied beta, to improve the prediction of the cross-section of asset returns. The ES …
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We examine the pricing of tail risk in international stock markets. We find that the tail risk of different countries … mainly driven by global tail risk rather than local tail risk. World fear is also priced in the crosssection of stock returns …
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This paper documents a significantly stronger relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future excess bond returns on Treasuries from 2008-2015 than before 2008. This new predictability result is not matched by the standard shadow rate model with Gaussian factor dynamics, but...
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