Showing 1 - 10 of 1,392
The empirical literature is very far from any consensus about the appropriate model for oil price forecasting that … frequencies on a common sample and common data. Fourth, we evaluate the forecasting performance of each selected model using … producing accurate forecasts of the WTI spot price. -- Oil Price ; WTI Spot and Futures Prices ; Forecasting ; Econometric …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009382869
has implications for the estimation of economic models of energy-intensive durables, for oil price forecasting, and for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434566
-time econometric oil price forecasting models. We investigate the merits of constructing combinations of six such models. Forecast … combinations have received little attention in the oil price forecasting literature to date. We demonstrate that over the last 20 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010200871
energy-intensive durables, for the debate on speculation in oil markets, and for oil price forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010409922
Asset prices are a valuable source of information about financial market participants.expectations about key macroeconomic variables. However, the presence of time-varying risk premia requires an adjustment of market prices to obtain the market’s rational assessment of future price and policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012622575
forecasting daily electricity prices in two of the main European markets, Germany and Italy. We do that by means of mixed …-frequency models, introducing a Bayesian approach to reverse unrestricted MIDAS models (RU-MIDAS). We study the forecasting accuracy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011987142
usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. We find that world industrial production is one of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012213172
It has been forty years since the oil crisis of 1973/74. This crisis has been one of the defining economic events of the 1970s and has shaped how many economists think about oil price shocks. In recent years, a large literature on the economic determinants of oil price fluctuations has emerged....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011411360
important approach to forecasting the real price of oil which has not been studied systematically to date. This approach is …. Our objective is to evaluate this proposition. We derive from first principles a number of alternative forecasting model … not all product spread models are useful for out-of-sample forecasting, but some models are, even at horizons between one …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781115
has implications for the estimation of economic models of energy-intensive durables, for oil price forecasting and for the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011452269