In this paper, a simple model of information asymmetry is used to study central bank forecast publication. Central banks are assumed to choose between not publishing a forecast, publishing a forecast that conditions on current policy, publishing an unconditional forecast, or publishing both....

A common practice in studies using inflation forecasts is to approximate fixed-horizon forecasts with fixed-event ones. Here we show that this may be problematic. In a panel of US inflation forecast data that allows us to compare the two, the approximation results in a mean absolute...

We model inflation forecasts as monotonically diverging from an estimated long-run anchor point towards actual inflation as the forecast horizon shortens. Fitting the model with forecaster-level data for Canada and the US, we identify three key differences between the two countries. First, the...