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forecasters with economic interest (stakes) and influence to publish biased forecasts prior to a referendum. We test our theory …
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forecasters with economic interest (stakes) and in uence to publish biased forecasts prior to a referendum. We test our theory …
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This paper explores whether professional macroeconomic forecasters manipulate their forecasts to influence voting outcomes. We model a referendum in which a voter chooses between two policies. The voter relies on a forecaster to learn about the macroeconomic consequences of the policies. The...
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