In order to investigate the potential anti-inflationary consequences of acceleration of productivity, the output gap-based Phillips curve is augmented to include the cyclical markup and change in output gap. The markup allows for the short-term influence of productivity-induced decline in unit...

Comparison of three survey measures of one-year-ahead CPI inflation- Livingston, Michigan, and Professional Forecasters-permits assessment of their accuracy, predictive content, and rationality. The author uses the test of Granger-causality to investigate predictive content and real-time data on...

Consumer sentiment may predict future household spending, either because sentiment is an independent causal force or because it foreshadows current economic conditions. The empirical evidence we present favors the second interpretation. The evidence in previous research that favors the first...