This paper describes the group decision forecasting (or prediction) problem and explores a particular case of it. The case is that of what policy the Iranian government would implement for pursuing the war with Iran during the mid-1980s. This case is described in a well-known, if controversial...

The so-called El Farol problem describes a prototypical situation of interacting agents making binary choices to participate in a non-cooperative environment or to stay by themselves and choosing an outside option. In a much cited paper Arthur (1994) argues that persistent on-converging...