Similar Search Results

Huang, Chengyu - 2020

We construct sentiment indices for 20 countries from 1980 to 2019. Relying on computational text analysis, we capture specific language like 'fear', 'risk', 'hedging', 'opinion', and, 'crisis', as well as 'positive' and 'negative' sentiments, in news articles from the Financial Times. We assess...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843513

Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks

Minoiu, Camelia; Schneider, Andrés; Wei, Min - 2023

We provide evidence on the effect of the slope of the yield curve on economic activity through bank lending. Using … rates) boosts bank profits and the supply of bank loans. Intuitively, a higher term premium represents greater expected … profits on maturity transformation, which is at the core of banks’ business model, and therefore incentivizes bank lending …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014353432

Forecasting GDP Growth with NIPA Aggregates

Garciga, Christian - 2017

Beyond GDP, which is measured using expenditure data, the U.S. national income and product accounts (NIPAs) provide an income-based measure of the economy (gross domestic income, or GDI), a measure that averages GDP and GDI, and various aggregates that include combinations of GDP components....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012955604

Predictive Density Aggregation : A Model for Global GDP Growth

Caselli, Francesca - 2020

In this paper we propose a novel approach to obtain the predictive density of global GDP growth. It hinges upon a bottom-up probabilistic model that estimates and combines single countries' predictive GDP growth densities, taking into account cross-country interdependencies. Specifically,we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012829696