Forecasts from a vector autoregressive model indicate that the substantial cuts in defense spending proposed by the Bush Administration in 1991 are likely to reduce GNP in both the short run and the long run. These forecasts hold even if proceeds from the spending cuts are used to reduce the...

This paper designs and implements a Baynesian dynamic latent factor model for a vector of data describing the Iowa economy. Posterior distributions of parameters and the latentfactor are analyzed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and coincident and leading indicators are given by posterior...

The paper describes a relative entropy procedure for imposing moment restrictions on simulated forecast distributions from a variety of models. Starting from an empirical forecast distribution for some variables of interest, the technique generates a new empirical distribution that satisfies a...