We study how individual unemployment expectations are shaped and updated using a unique longitudinal survey data set … with subjective unemployment expectations. The survey data is linked with third-party reported administrative data on … unemployment realizations, such that we are able to examine how prediction errors lead individuals to update their unemployment …

policy mix of unemployment insurance agencies. We analyze unique data on three sources of information on the probability of … re-employment within 6 months (RE6), for the same individuals sampled from the inflow into unemployment. First, they were …

the same individuals sampled from the inflow into unemployment. First, they were asked for their perceived probability of …

to identify the elasticity of unemployment insurance filings with respect to search intensity. Applying our elasticity … estimate to the state-level Google Trends indexes for the topic "unemployment", we show that out-of-sample forecasts made ahead … the demand for unemployment insurance. In addition, we provide a robust assessment of the uncertainty surrounding these …

the same individuals sampled from the inflow into unemployment. First, they were asked for their perceived probability of … nach Eintritt in die Arbeitslosigkeit. Erstens wurden Arbeitslose kurz nach Beginn der Arbeitslosigkeit nach ihrer …