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This study provides evidence that state budget officials give biased forecasts. Specifically, in gubernatorial election … election. Accordingly, in election years, budget deficits increase by $25 per capita. These observations are consistent with … the incumbent party increasing transfers (tax cuts or benefits increases) during an election year to gain support from …
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We compare the government investment and government consumption multipliers in the advanced economies during the recent fiscal consolidation, following the Blanchard and Leigh (2013) approach. We find that, in the highly-indebted countries, the investment multiplier is likely to be much higher...
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At PoliticalForecasting.com, better known as the Pollyvote, the authors combine forecasts from four sources: election … election, Polly predicted that the Republican ticket’s share of the two-party vote would be 47.0%. The outcome was close at 46 …
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factors have a significant influence on midterm election results for the House. An analysis of the regression residuals … 2022 midterm election results …
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forecasting to established election forecasting models.Usefulness. Election forecasters can substantially improve the accuracy of …
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