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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001210478
We document using the ZEW panel of German stock market forecasters that weak forecasters tend to be overconfident in the sense that they provide extreme forecasts and their confidence intervals are less likely to contain eventual realizations. Moderate filters based on forecast accuracy over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010511233
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003749683
We document using the ZEW panel of German stock market forecasters that weak forecasters tend to be overconfident in the sense that they provide extreme forecasts and their confidence intervals are less likely to contain eventual realizations. Moderate filters based on forecast accuracy over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010532082
We document using the ZEW panel of German stock market forecasters that weak forecasters tend to be overconfident in the sense that they provide extreme forecasts and their confidence intervals are less likely to contain eventual realizations. Moderate filters based on forecast accuracy over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010519455
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012180502
We document using the ZEW panel of German stock market forecasters that weak forecasters tend to be overconfident in the sense that they provide extreme forecasts and their confidence intervals are less likely to contain eventual realizations. Moderate filters based on forecast accuracy over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012937265
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001701751
Starting from an information process governed by a geometric Brownian motion we show that asset returns are predictable if the elasticity of the pricing kernel is not constant. Declining [Increasing] elasticity of the pricing kernel leads to mean reversion and negatively autocorrelated asset...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013428490
This paper analyzes the effect of non-constant elasticity of the pricing kernel on asset return characteristics in a rational expectations model. It is shown that declining elasticity of the pricing kernel can lead to predictability of asset returns and high and persistent volatility. Also,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002527953