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In diesem Aufsatz wird die nichtparametrische Autoregression auf die Prognose von Quantilen angewendet. Verfahren der Kernregression werden benutzt, um zu autoregressiven Quantiisschätzern zu gelangen. Da die üblichen Maße zur Beurteilung der Prognose, wie etwa der mittlere quadratische...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009681115
Investment in equipment and machinery is a very important component of GDP. In this paper we examine whether data from business tendency sur- veys are useful for a timely assessment of current investment behavior. In addition we investigate whether the survey results are helpful for forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008858476
Results from business tendency surveys are often used to construct leading indicators. The indicators are then, for example, employed to forecast GDP growth. In this article more detailed results of business tendency surveys are used to forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP growth. The target series...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008858948
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013388162
This paper presents a composite leading indicator for the Swiss business cycle corresponding to the growth rate cycle concept. It is the result of a complete overhaul of the KOF Economic Barometer that has been published by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute on a monthly basis since 1976. In line...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010338122
This study concentrates on the signal approach for Kazakhstan. It focuses on the properties of individual indicators prior to observed currency crises. The indicators are used to build composite indicators. An advanced approach uses principal components analysis for the construction of composite...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003883094
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011934602
Das ifo Institut begleitet seit seiner Gründung im Jahr 1949 das aktuelle Wirtschaftsgeschehen durch seine regelmäßigen Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturprognosen. Daneben hat das ifo Institut aber immer auch Aufsätze zur methodischen Basis seiner Konjunkturforschung veröffentlicht. Die...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011845125
This paper documents a comparative application of algorithms to deal with the problem of missing values in higher frequency data sets. We refer to Swiss business tendency survey (BTS) data, in particular the KOF manufacturing surveys, which are conducted in both monthly and quarterly frequency,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013472865
This paper documents a comparative application of algorithms to deal with the problem of missing values in higher frequency data sets. We refer to Swiss business tendency survey (BTS) data which are conducted in both monthly and quarterly frequency, where an information sub-set is collected at...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013482570