VaR models are related to statistical forecast systems. Within that framework different forecast tasks including Value-at-Risk and shortfall are discussed and motivated. A backtesting method based on the shortfall is developed and applied to VaR forecasts of areal portfolio. The analysis shows...

We introduce four variants of the common age effect model proposed by Kleinow, which describes the mortality rates of multiple populations. Our model extensions are based on the assumption of multiple common age effects, each of which is shared only by a subgroup of all considered populations....