Predictive modeling focuses on iteratively trying various combinations and transformations of a set of variables to generate a decision rule that predicts outcomes for new observations. Although accounting researchers have demonstrated interest in predictive modeling, we identify a lack of...

Antibiotic resistance constitutes a major health threat. Predicting bacterial causes of infections is key to reducing antibiotic misuse, a leading driver of antibiotic resistance. We train a machine learning algorithm on administrative and microbiological laboratory data from Denmark to predict...

Antibiotic resistance constitutes a major health threat. Predicting bacterial causes of infections is key to reducing antibiotic misuse, a leading driver of antibiotic resistance. We train a machine learning algorithm on administrative and microbiological laboratory data from Denmark to predict...

This paper examines point and density forecasts of real GDP growth, inflation and unemployment from the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters. We present individual uncertainty measures and introduce individual point- and density-based measures of disagreement. The...

This paper examines point and density forecasts from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters. We derive individual uncertainty measures along with individual point- and density-based measures of disagreement. We also explore the relationship between uncertainty and...

The main goal of the article is to investigate forecasting quality of two approaches to modelling main macroeconomic variables without a priori assumptions concerning causality and generate forecasts without additional assumptions regarding regressors. With application of tendency survey data...

We propose several multivariate variance ratio statistics. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the statistics and scalar functions thereof under the null hypothesis that returns are unpredictable after a constant mean adjustment (i.e., under the weak form Efficient Market Hypothesis). We do...

Improving physicians’ prescription practices is a primary strategy for countering the rise in resistance to antibiotics. This would prevent physicians from incorrectly prescribing antibiotics, one of the main causes of antibiotic resistance. The increasing availability of medical data and...

In this paper a new method of constructing the leading economic index is presented. Its main advantage is the ability to distinguish domestic and foreign factors influencing the growth of economy and it is performed via dynamic hierarchical factor modelling. An application is carried out with...

A dynamic asset-allocation model is specified in probabilistic terms as a combination of return distributions resulting from multiple pairs of dynamic models and portfolio strategies based on momentum patterns in US industry returns. The nonlinear state space representation of the model allows...