We propose a novel early warning system for detecting financial market crashes that utilizes the information extracted from the shape of financial market movement. Our system incorporates Topological Data Analysis (TDA), a new set of data analytics techniques specialised in profiling the shape...

We re-visit a puzzling result that in U.S. post-WW II data the dividend price ratio can predict aggregate returns but not dividend growth. We find that predictive regressions are sensitive to the method used to aggregate firm-level data. Using value weighted firm-level data we find strong...

In this paper we study the predictability of aggregate consumption growth using common factors extracted from a large panel of macroeconomic and financial time series. The stochastic process followed by consumption growth and its predictability by other variables is a key assumption in...