1. Prologue -- 1.1 Objective of the Study -- 1.2 Survey of the Study -- 2. Vector Stochastic Processes -- 2.1 Discrete-Time, Stationary Vector Stochastic Processes -- 2.2 Nonstationary Processes -- 2.3 Vector Autoregressive Moving Average Processes -- 2.4 Estimation -- 2.5 Model Specification --...

Despite the fact that many aggregates are nonlinear functions and the aggregation weights of many macroeconomic aggregates are time-varying, much of the literature on forecasting aggregates considers the case of linear aggregates with fixed, time-invariant aggregation weights. In this study a...

For forecasting and economic analysis many variables are used in logarithms (logs). In time series analysis this transformation is often considered to stabilize the variance of a series. We investigate under which conditions taking logs is beneficial for forecasting. Forecasts based on the...