Recent research has documented that the Federal Reserve produces systematic errors in forecasting inflation, real GDP growth, and the unemployment rate, even though these forecasts are unbiased. We show that these systematic errors reveal that the Fed is “surprised” by real and inflationary...

We examine quarterly oil price forecasts from the Survey of Professional forecasters by the European Central Bank. We find statistical evidence at short forecast horizons that oil price volatility observed ex post explains ex-ante disagreement between oil price forecasters of the ECB's...