The understanding of house price expectations formation is quite limited in the housing literature. This is the first paper to rigorously test the rationality of expectations of house price change using survey data. Using a panel dataset of the Wall Street Journal economic forecasting survey...

We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration's projections for cost rate, trust fund balance, trust fund ratio made during 1980-2020 with horizons up to 95 years. We find that the reported deterioration in the accuracy of the forecasts during 2010’s has...