more accurate than econometric models that include levels variables, ECMs. For example, dVAR forecasts are insulated from …

forecasts made for Romanian by three experts in forecasting: F1, F2 and F3. All the unemployment rate forecasts over the horizon …-Timmermann test, the directional forecasts of F3 and the autumn expectations of F2 are useful and rational. …

In this study a comparative analysis of the forecasts accuracy for Spain (developed country) and Romania (developing … the Spanish institutes provided more accurate forecasts, for the rest of the variables (inflation rate, private … in Romania, E2 provided more accurate forecasts. In Spain, FUNCAS offered better forecasts for GDP growth and private …

models, structural economic models, expert forecasts and combinations thereof. The predictive performance of these approaches … expert forecasts. Here several methods of combination are considered: equal weights, optimized weights and weights based on …

-core variables are obtained by applying their measurement equations to DSGE model-generated forecasts of the state variables. Using a … medium-scale New Keynesian DSGE model, we apply our approach to generate and evaluate recursive forecasts for PCE inflation …

(DSGE) model forecasts and their ability to predict comovements among key macroeconomic variables. We construct posterior … predictive checks to evaluate conditional and unconditional density forecasts, in addition to checks for root-mean-squared errors … and event probabilities associated with these forecasts. The checks are implemented on a three-equation DSGE model as well …

Inflation forecasts are a key ingredient for monetary policy-making -- especially in an inflation targeting country … 1999Q4, and generate recursive forecasts over 2000Q1-2011Q4. The hybrid DSGE performs extremely well in forecasting … inflation variables (both core and non-modeled) in comparison with forecasts reported by other models such as AR(1) …

Common approaches to test for the economic value of directional forecasts are based on the classical Chi-square test … relevance to account for serial correlation in economic time series when testing for the value of directional forecasts …. -- Directional forecasts ; directional accuracy ; forecast evaluation ; testing independence ; contingency tables ; bootstrap …