This paper explores the volatility forecasting implications of a model in which the friction in high-frequency prices is related to the true underlying volatility. The contribution of this paper is to propose a framework under which the realized variance may improve volatility forecasting if the...

Whether idiosyncratic volatility has increased over time and whether it is a good predictor of future returns is a matter of active debate. We show formally through central limit arguments that there is a direct relationship between the dynamics of the cross-sectional variance of realized...