Life insurers, pension funds, health care providers and social security institutions face increasing expenses due to continuing improvements of mortality rates. The actuarial and demographic literature has introduced a myriad of (deterministic and stochastic) models to forecast mortality rates...

In this paper we present a detailed outline of the posterior distributions for the LL model, as described by Antonio et al. (2015). Moreover, we illustrate the convergence of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo ([MCMC]) updating scheme used by Antonio et al. (2015).The paper "Bayesian Poisson...

This article presents the development and application of a simulation model that was used to forecast the demand of automobile parts using information from a car dealer in Mexico, D. F. In particular, this work illustrates, using a simple model, how stochastic simulation and Bayesian statistics...

Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape define a flexible, semi-parametric class of regression models for analyzing insurance data in which the exponential family assumption for the response is relaxed. This approach allows the actuary to include risk factors not only in the...