For strategic purposes of setting price and productivity targets, organizations need to make projection of long-term cost as well as short-term cost estimation. For long-term cost estimation, organizations do rely on the experience curve among other methodologies. However, for short-term cost...

This study estimates the suitability of prediction markets (as instruments of internal control) by analyzing their event and progress sensitivity based on comprehensive experimental data. The underlying experiment was designed using expected average grades and closely observing students' (rank...

This chapter focuses upon machine learning algorithms within police decision-making in England and Wales, specifically in relation to predictive analytics. It first reviews the state of the art regarding the implementation of algorithmic tools underpinned by machine learning to aid police...

This article discusses the meaning of jury “predictability” and whether jury research supports claims of unpredictability. It then analyzes the factors that are associated with perceptions of civil jury unpredictability using data from (1) surveys of corporate and insurance attorneys’...

Empirical evidence suggests that many macroeconomic and financial time series are subject to occasional structural breaks. In this paper we present analytical results quantifying the effects of such breaks on the correlation between the forecast and the realization and on the ability to forecast...

Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...

The forecast evaluation literature has traditionally focused on methods for assessing point-forecasts. However, in the context of risk models, interest centers on more than just a single point of the forecast distribution. For example, value-at-risk (VaR) models which are currently in extremely...

We propose two new jump-robust estimators of integrated variance based on highfrequency return observations. These MinRV and MedRV estimators provide an attractive alternative to the prevailing bipower and multipower variation measures. Specifically, the MedRV estimator has better theoretical...

Many courses in financial economics cover the estimation of forward rates implied in Treasury spot rates. A less well-known extension of this discussion shows how yields on TIPS and similar-maturity conventional Treasury securities may be used to extract the market's inflation expectation. We...