This paper finds positive evidence of return predictability and investment gains for individual corporate bonds for an extended period from 1973 to 2017. Our sample consists of both public and private company bond observations. We have implemented multiple machine learning methods and designed a...

This paper documents substantial evidence of return predictability and investment gains for individual corporate bonds via machine learning. The forecast-implied long-short and market-timing strategies deliver significant risk-adjusted returns over transaction costs. Random Forest has the best...

We take up Cochrane's (2011) challenge to identify the firm characteristics that provide independent information about average U.S. monthly stock returns by simultaneously including 94 characteristics in Fama-MacBeth regressions that avoid overweighting microcaps and adjust for data snooping...

Using Thailand stock market data, we find that prospect theory has strong predictive power for returns in the Thailand stock market. This predictive power is strengthened during crises and bear and bull markets. The loss aversion component is the main contributor to the increased predictive...

Using a comprehensive data set and an array of 27 macroeconomic, stock and bond predictors, we find that corporate bond returns are highly predictable based on an iterated combination model. The large set of predictors outperforms traditional predictors substantially, and predictability...

Using a large number of predictors and based on an extended iterated combination approach of Lin, Wu, and Zhou (2017), we document both statistical and economic significance of Treasury bond return predictability. Macroeconomic and aggregate liquidity variables contain predictive information for...

It is well known that volatility is time-varying and clustered. However, few studies have explored the information content of volatility clustering and its implications for investors’ risk aversion. This information is particularly important in turbulent periods, such as financial crisis. We...