Previous assessments of nominal exchange rate determination have focused upon a narrow set of models typically of the 1970's vintage, including monetary and portfolio balance models. In this paper we re-assess the in-sample fit and out-of-sample prediction of a wider set of models that have been...

In recent years, there has been renewed interest in the yield curve (or alternatively, the term premium) as a predictor of future economic activity. In this paper, we re‐examine the evidence for this predictor, both for the United States, as well as European countries. We believe a...