Rocco Aprile and Aurelio Sidoti present the forecasting model developed by the Italian Ministry of Treasury in order to evaluate the long-term prospects of the pension system. The model is characterised by the effort to consider in detail the legal and institutional framework. In particular, it...

The paper derives analytical transitions probabilities following an exogenous shock to the deterministic component in the conditional logit model. The solution draws on the postestimation distribution of the model's stochastic component, identified on the basis of a direct utility maximization...