We test price efficiency in the NFL point spread betting market by examining the relationship between betting line forecast errors and game day temperatures for 5,463 NFL games from 1981 to 2004. Our main contribution to the existing literature is the identification of a mispriced...

We examine 330,857 trades of prediction market contracts, the values of which are based on against-the-spread outcomes of NFL games, and find the presence of a significant reverse favourite-longshot bias. Surprisingly, the timing of this bias is identical to that observed in traditional...

Prediction markets add value when they produce unbiased forecasts. However, several prior studies find persistent biases when examining prediction market sides contracts. Sides contracts represent bets on whether the score differential between two teams in a contest will be greater or less than...