Fiscal policy constitutes a key tool for business cycle stabilisation next to monetary policy. In this context, having a well-suited macroeconomic model for analysing fiscal policy at a central bank is of primary importance. This paper documents the fiscal block of the ECB-BASE, which is a...

A linear and lagged relationship between inflation and labor force growth rate has been recently found for the USA. It accurately describes the period after the late 1950s with linear coefficient 4.0, intercept -0.03, and the lag of 2 years. The previously reported agreement between observed and...

Актуальность темы исследования: Прогнозирование макроэкономических показателей является одним из основных элементов макроэкономической политики и выполняет...

In this paper we present an evaluation of forecasts of a vector of variables of the German economy made by different institutions. Our method permits one to evaluate the forecasts for each year and then if one is interested to combine the years. We use our method to determine an overall winner...

Many government policies affect incentives to acquire human capital. Two workhorse models dominate the literature analyzing these policies: Learning by Doing (LBD) and Ben-Porath (BP). This paper makes two novel findings related to these models. First, LBD and BP generate different predictions...

Using real-time data, we analyze how the systematic expectation errors of professional forecasters in 19 advanced economies depend on the state of the business cycle. Our results indicate that the general result that forecasters systematically overestimate output growth (across all countries)...

This paper estimates a standard Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model that includes a wage and price Phillips curves with different expectation formation processes for Brazil and the USA. Other than the standard rational expectation process, we also use a limited rationality...

Potential links between inflation, (t), and unemployment, UE(t), in Germany have been examined. There exists a consistent (conventional) Phillips curve despite some changes in monetary policy. This Phillips curve is characterized by a negative relation between inflation and unemployment with the...

The foreign exchange reserves of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) countries have decreased since the fall of world oil price that began in July 2014. In fact, five of the six of the CEMAC countries are oil producers. Based on interrupted time series modeling, the...