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Kumar, Pradeep; Nicodemo, Catia; Oreffice, Sonia; … - 2024

This study employs six Machine Learning methods - Logit, Lasso-Logit, Ridge-Logit, Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting, and an Ensemble - alongside registry data on abortions in Spain from 2011-2019 to predict multiple abortions and assess monetary savings through targeted interventions. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014545133

Stochastic population analysis : a functional data approach

Fang, Lei; Härdle, Wolfgang - 2015

Based on the Lee-Carter (LC) model, the benchmark in population forecasting, a variety of extensions and modifications are proposed in this paper. We investigate one of the extensions, the Hyndman-Ullah (HU) method and apply it to Asian demographic data sets: China, Japan and Taiwan. It combines...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010477583

Exponential or Hyperbolic? Identifying and Testing the Predictive Power of Time Preference Over Unhealthy Behaviours

Tang, Jianjun - 2017

It is crucial to more thoroughly understand discounting behaviour because it has important implications for designing interventions with financial incentives for behavioural change. This means examining discounting functional forms as well as discount rates and establishing their impacts across...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968473

Stochastic household forecasts by coherent random shares predictions

Keilman, Nico; Duin, Coen van - 2014 - This version 14 April 2014

We compute a stochastic household forecast for the Netherlands by the random share method. Time series of shares of persons in nine household positions, broken down by sex and five-year age group for the years 1996-2010 are modelled by means of the Hyndman-Booth-Yasmeen product-ratio variant of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010354141

An Economic Approach to Machine Learning in Health Policy

Daysal, N. Meltem; Mullainathan, Sendhil; Obermeyer, Ziad; … - 2023

We consider the effects of "precision" screening policies for cancer guided by algorithms. We first show that complex machine learning models can indeed predict cancer better than simpler models that use established risk factors. We then tackle the evaluation challenge: an algorithm that can...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014263876

The Impact of Pandemic on Fertility in Russia : A Few Assumptions for the Forecast

Kazenin, Konstantin - 2021

fertility in developed countries. The significance of the outcome of these studies is under consideration designed to forecast … changes in fertility resulted from the pandemic in Russia, as well as to plan state policies to support fertility under the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013230257

Age- and sex-specific fertility in Germany until the year 2040 : the impact of international migration

Vanella, Patrizio - 2017

Good forecasts for future fertility developments are of high importance in political planning, especially regarding … measures in social insurance. Fertility is the main driver of demographic change, since small fertility rates lead to a … on a quasi-three principal component model are fitted to the age- and sex-specific fertility rates (ASSFR). Age …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011722114

A principal component simulation of age-specific fertility : impacts of family and social policy on reproductive behavior in Germany

Vanella, Patrizio; Deschermeier, Philipp - 2018

This contribution proposes a simulation approach for the indirect estimation of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs …) and the total fertility rate (TFR) for Germany via time series modeling of the principal components of the ASFRs. The … probability of 75%. Based on this result, it is unlikely that the fertility level will fall back to its extremely low levels of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011860247

Self-rated health and changes in self-rated health as predictors of mortality : first evidence from German panel data

Schwarze, Johannes; Andersen, Hanfried H.; Anger, Silke - 2000

Empirical evidence from several countries reveals that self-rated health is a valid predictor of mortality. So far, there have been no studies conducted for Germany. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (GSOEP) we confirm the relationship between self-rated health and mortality...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011432793

Self-rated and changes in self-rated health as predictors of mortality : first evidence from german panel data

Schwarze, Johannes; Andersen, Hanfried H.; Anger, Silke - 2002

Background: Studies from several countries have shown that self-rated health is an independent predictor of mortality. However, no empirical evidence exists for Germany so far. We investigate the effectiveness of (i) self-ratings of health by individuals and (ii) changes in self-rated health, as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009626677