Motivated by the question of how one should evaluate professional election forecasters, we study a novel dynamic mechanism design problem without transfers. A principal who wishes to hire only high-quality forecasters is faced with an agent of unknown quality. The agent privately observes...

A principal hires an agent to work on a long-term project that culminates in a breakthrough or a breakdown. At each time, the agent privately chooses to work or shirk. Working increases the arrival rate of breakthroughs and decreases the arrival rate of breakdowns. To motivate the agent to work,...

I consider a class of two-party, zero sum sequential selection games where players compete over the composition of a panel comprising one or more seats. The players have a limited number of vetoes which can be used to reject panelists, with replacements being selected at random from a pool. One...

This paper proposes a predictive maintenance policy using modified failure mode effect and criticality analysis (Mod-FMECA) technique. FMECA is used to identify failure modes, reasons, effects and criticality of the system (machine/plant) but in Mod-FMECA in addition to the analysis carried for...

Problem: How to help practitioners, academics, and decision makers use experimental research findings to substantially reduce forecast errors for all types of forecasting problems. Methods: Findings from our review of forecasting experiments were used to identify methods and principles that lead...

Most of predictive maintenance technologies are inaccessible to small scale and medium scale industries due to their demanding cost. This paper proposes a predictive maintenance policy using failure mode effect and criticality analysis (FMECA) and non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) models...

A mathematical model for the hit phenomenon in entertainment within a society is presented as a stochastic process of interactions of human dynamics. The calculations for the Japanese motion picture market based on to the mathematical model agree very well with the actual residue distribution in...

To effectively manage audit risk, auditors must anticipate potential litigation and reputation consequences associated with inaccurate accounting estimates. Our paper examines whether auditors correctly anticipate these consequences. We provided 57 manager- and partner-level auditors with case...

To effectively manage audit risk, auditors must correctly predict the potential litigation and reputation consequences associated with inaccurate accounting estimates. Accurate predictions are critical because underestimation of negative consequences leads to excess legal exposure and...