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Modelling and forecasting the covariance of financial return series has always been a challenge due to the so-called "curse of dimensionality". This paper proposes a methodology that is applicable in large dimensional cases and is based on a time series of realized covariance matrices. Some...
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In this paper we introduce a new method of forecasting covariance matrices of large dimensions by exploiting the theoretical and empirical potential of using mixed-frequency sampled data. The idea is to use high-frequency (intraday) data to model and forecast daily realized volatilities combined...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013038331
This paper analyzes the forecast accuracy of the multivariate realized volatility model introduced by Chiriac and Voev (2010), subject to different degrees of model parametrization and economic evaluation criteria. By modelling the Cholesky factors of the covariance matrices, the model generates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013132544
We analyze the applicability of economic criteria for volatility forecast evaluation based on unconditional measures of portfolio performance. The main theoretical finding is that such unconditional measures generally fail to rank conditional forecasts correctly due to the presence of a bias...
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