We developed a factor regression model, nicknamed “GUPTY”, to study the business cycles, and their relation to the monetary policy. It covers several major macro-economic quantities, including unemployment rate, GDP, and weekly payrolls in the U.S. after WWII. The model postulates that these...

Predictions of the individual unemployment duration will allow to distribute target support while searching for a job more effectively. The paper uses survival models to predict the unemployment duration based on data from Russian employment centers in 2017-2021. The dataset includes...

This paper studies the predictability of long-term unemployment (LTU) and analyzes its main determinants using rich administrative data in Sweden. Compared to using standard socio-demographic variables, the predictive power more than doubles when leveraging the rich data environment. The largest...

The aim of the paper is to analyze the ability of internet activity, what has been called Google econometrics, to predict unemployment in Spain. We include a new predictor for Spanish unemployment based on internet information provided by Google Trends. Using monthly data from January 2004 to...

Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected by the European Commission over 444 months between...

In this paper we study international linkages when forecasting unemployment rates in a sample of 24 OECD economies. We propose a Global Unemployment Factor (GUF) and test its predictive ability considering in-sample and out-of-sample exercises. Our main results indicate that the predictive...

This paper studies the predictability of long-term unemployment (LTU) and analyzes its main determinants using rich administrative data in Sweden. Compared to using standard socio-demographic variables, the predictive power more than doubles when leveraging the rich data environment. The largest...

We suggest the use of an Internet job-search indicator (the Google Index, GI) as the best leading indicator to predict the US unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that adopt both our preferred leading indicator (GI), the more standard...

Big data trends, have gained popularity among practitioners for its potential applications on accurate econometric prediction. This paper presents an application where unemployment job search indicators for the G7 countries are based on Google trends data. For each country, a set of google...

Two new predictive screening tools that are based on analyzing records of over one-million people who experienced homelessness have been placed in the public domain by the Economic Roundtable. The two groups targeted by these tools are low-wage workers who have just lost their jobs and youth...