We study an adverse-selection model in which the distribution of the asset is affected by unobservable actions of the seller. The seller's equilibrium behavior is characterized by a risk-seeking disposition, and a competitive market, in which the underlying distribution of the traded asset is...

In this paper, I use the standard machinery of dynamic general equilibrium models to generate a rich class of probabilities and discuss their properties. This class includes probabilities consistent with Bayes' rule and known non-Bayesian rules. If the prior support is correctly specified, I...

You're probably familiar, at least in passing, with the 'convexity' of long-term bonds - i.e. that yields dropping 1% produce a bigger price move than yields rising 1%. A significant amount of brainpower has gone into understanding all the ramifications of this convexity in the fixed income...

The paper examines the problem of portfolio selection based on the forecasts of unknown quality in a mean-variance framework. Early work by Treynor and Black (1973) established a relationship between the correlation of forecasts, the number of independent securities available and the Sharpe...

Facing climate change, seasonal forecasts, and weather warnings are increasingly important to warn the public of the risk of extreme climate conditions. However, being confronted with inaccurate forecast systems may undermine individuals' responsiveness in the long run. Using an online...

Human decision-making differs due to variation in both incentives and available information. This generates substantial challenges for the evaluation of whether and how machine learning predictions can improve decision outcomes. We propose a framework that incorporates machine learning on...

Human decision-making differs due to variation in both incentives and available information. This generates substantial challenges for the evaluation of whether and how machine learning predictions can improve decision outcomes. We propose a framework that incorporates machine learning on...

This paper investigates ambiguity attitudes for natural events (temperatures) and how they are updated following new information. Using a general population sample, we first obtain baseline ambiguity attitudes for future weather events based on real temperatures over several past days. Second,...