We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...

This paper documents a significant time-series momentum effect that is consistent and robust across all examined conventional asset classes from 1969 to 2015. We find that the duration and magnitude of time-series momentum is different in developed and emerging markets, but this is no longer the...

This paper develops a general equilibrium model and provides empirical support that the market volatility-of-volatility (VOV) predicts market returns and drives the time-varying volatility risk. In asset pricing tests with the market, volatility, and VOV as factors, the risk premium on VOV is...

We study whether option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, contains information about future returns, especially the negative ones. Our tail loss measure predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond...

We find out-of-sample predictability of commodity futures excess returns using forecast combinations of 28 potential predictors. Such gains in forecast accuracy translate into economically significant improvements in certainty equivalent returns and Sharpe ratios for a mean-variance investor....

Dynamic equilibrium models based on present value computation imply that returns are predictable but also generate particular patterns of predictability in asset returns. I take advantage of this to construct a set of tests of Equilibrium Generated Predictability (EGP). I apply the tests to...

Purpose: In this paper we try to explain US stock market variations and cash flow fundamentals by employing three different book-valued based ratios, First, we explore the explanatory capacity of the simple book-market ratio on time-varying expected returns, and procced on altering its...

We study a new constrained equity premium forecasting approach which employs the option-implied lower bounds for the conditional market premium from Martin (2017) and Chabi-Yo and Loudis (2020), respectively, as forecast constraints. This constrained approach delivers considerable out-of-sample...

We derive risk-neutral option price formulas for plain-vanilla temperature futures derivatives on the basis of several multi-factor Ornstein-Uhlenbeck temperature models which allow for seasonality in the mean level and volatility. Our main innovation consists in an incorporation of omnipresent...

We discover a new currency strategy with highly desirable return and diversification properties, which uses the predictive capability of currency volatility risk premia for currency returns. The volatility risk premium -- the difference between expected realized volatility and model-free implied...