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Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty : Distribution Forecast Targeting

Svensson, Lars E. O. - 2016

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991220

When Does an Interest Rate Path 'Look Good'? Criteria for an Appropriate Future Interest Rate Path

Qvigstad, Jan F. - 2019

Svensson (2004) suggested that a monetary policy committee of a central bank (MPC) should “find an instrument-rate path such that projections of inflation and output gap ‘look good'.” Academic literature on monetary policy gives guidance as to what the words “look good” means. However,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889731

Inflation Targeting and Private Sector Forecasts

Hakkio, Craig S. - 2013

Transparency is one of the biggest innovations in central bank policy of the past quarter century. Modern central … bankers believe that they should be as clear about their objectives and actions as possible. However, is greater transparency … errors. Greater transparency could be destabilizing. While this theoretical result has clear intuitive appeal, it turns on a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013095161

Analyzing ECB communications improves forecasting of interest rate decisions

Bernoth, Kerstin - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 15 (2025) 16/17, pp. 100-105

For central banks, official communications serve as essential monetary policy instruments: In press releases, speeches, and interviews, central banks explain their decisions, manage expectations, and promote confidence in their strategy. This Weekly Report analyzes European Central Bank (ECB)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015398331

The social value of information : a test of a beauty and non-beauty contest

Lustenberger, Thomas; Rossi, Enzo - 2018

We develop and apply a procedure to test the welfare implications of a beauty and non-beauty contest based on survey forecasts of interest rates and yields in a large country sample over an extended period of time. In most countries, interest rate forecasts are unbiased and consistent with both...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011790681

Monetary Policy and the Stock Market : Time-Series Evidence

Neuhierl, Andreas - 2017

We construct a slope factor from changes in federal funds futures of different horizons. Slope predicts stock returns at the weekly frequency: faster monetary policy easing positively predicts excess returns. Investors can achieve increases in weekly Sharpe ratios of 20% conditioning on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012965931

Monetary policy and the stock market : time-series evidence

Neuhierl, Andreas; Weber, Michael - 2016

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011566444

Forecasting banking system liquidity using payment system data in Uzbekistan

Makhmudov, Shakhzod Abdullaevich - 2025

Forecasting banking system liquidity is crucial for the effective monetary policy implementation. This study investigates the effectiveness of various econometric and machine learning models in predicting the autonomous factors of banking system liquidity. The research compares widely used...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015198517

Velocity Futures Markets : Does the Fed Need a Structural Model?

Jackson, Aaron L. - 2010

Previous proposals suggesting monetary policy makers target private-sector forecasts have been shown to be problematic. As policy becomes more effective, private-sector forecasts become less informative. Under perfect stabilization private-sector forecasts provide no useful guidance to monetary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012716975

On the drivers of inflation in different monetary regimes

Garcés Díaz, Daniel G. - 2020

This document proposes a general macroeconomic framework to analyze the behavior of inflation. This approach has two characteristics. The first is the distinction of monetary regimes based on the number of shocks that have a permanent effect on the price level. When all shocks have a permanent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012391020