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. Third, the choice of the volatility forecasting mode affects the simulation results significantly. Fourth, we find a … significant impact of correlation versus no correlation but do not find a strong impact of sophisticated correlation forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013133631
forecasting techniques, e.g. correlation forecasts based on historical values and on a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model … varied. We find that the applied volatility forecasting models have a strong influence on the expected net present value … distribution and on the probability of default. In contrast, correlation forecasting models play a minor role. Time resolution and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008659217
We propose a new approach to deal with structural breaks in time series models. The key contribution is an alternative dynamic stochastic specification for the model parameters which describes potential breaks. After a break new parameter values are generated from a so-called baseline prior...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011383033
developed in MATLAB. We examine five major stock market index returns for a testing forecasting period of 10 days ahead. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013126948
This paper puts forward kernel ridge regression as an approach for forecasting with many predictors that are related … overfitting. We extend the kernel ridge regression methodology to enable its use for economic time-series forecasting, by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011382698
We propose a new approach to deal with structural breaks in time series models. The key contribution is an alternative dynamic stochastic specification for the model parameters which describes potential breaks. After a break new parameter values are generated from a so-called baseline prior...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130370
This paper puts forward kernel ridge regression as an approach for forecasting with many predictors that are related … overfitting. We extend the kernel ridge regression methodology to enable its use for economic time-series forecasting, by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131602
filtering of time-varying volatility, and volatility forecasting. Specifically, we make use of the indirect inference method to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014433826
returns and intradaily squared returns for forecasting horizons rangingfrom 1 to 10 days. For the daily squared returns we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011304384
To simultaneously consider mixed-frequency time series, their joint dynamics, and possible structural changes, we introduce a time-varying parameter mixed-frequency VAR. To keep our approach from becoming too complex, we implement time variation parsimoniously: only the intercepts and a common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011903709