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The paper proposes two econometric models of inflation for Azerbaijan: one based on monthly data and eclectic, another … based on quarterly data and takes into account disequilibrium at the money market. Inflation regression based on monthly … data showed that consumer prices dynamics is explained by money growth (the more money, the higher the inflation), exchange …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009491154
The paper proposes two econometric models of inflation for Azerbaijan: one based on monthly data and eclectic, another … based on quarterly data and takes into account disequilibrium at the money market. Inflation regression based on monthly … data showed that consumer prices dynamics is explained by money growth (the more money, the higher the inflation), exchange …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014172717
Output gap estimates at the current edge are subject to severe revisions. This study analyzes whether monetary aggregates can be used to improve the reliability of early output gap estimates as proposed by several theoretical models. A real-time experiment shows that real M1 can improve output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010248220
changes in aggregate demand, when inflation is rising and unemployment falling unexpectedly, also come with persistent long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868467
equilibrium exists. We study the response differences in the dynamics of the inflation rate to changes in the mean and variance of … the Great Recession, in which the effects of greater model uncertainty may have played a role in keeping inflation rates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013031084
reliable short-run inflation forecast and with regard to the latter we incur the need for a stable demand for money function …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013109317
for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money … kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation … forecasting inflation. Beyond its economic findings, our study is in the tradition of physicists' long-standing interest in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013152415
find evidence of its linchpin prediction that is not limited to periods of high inflation. -- quantity theory of money …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003949071
This paper modifies a P-star model to forecast inflation using an argument that is in line with the concept of “price ….S. inflation over one- to three-year horizons. The paper also argues that inflation dynamics in the U.S. since the early 1960s can … relationship between inflation and government debt is negative as the latter positively affects the demand for money. Therefore, a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012840176
This paper examines the forecasting performance of a broad monetary aggregate (M3) in predicting euro area inflation … even in the period of the financial and economic crisis. Monetary indicators are useful to predict inflation at the longer … money and inflation, central banks should implement exit strategies from the current policy path, as soon as the financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137100