This research explores whether there are systematic cross-national differences in choice-inferred risk preferences between Americans and Chinese. Study 1 found(a) that the Chinese were signi®cantly more risk seeking than the Americans, yet(b) that both nationals predicted exactly the opposite...

This research examined whether people can accurately predict the risk preferences of others.Three experiments featuring different designs revealed a systematic bias: that participants predicted others to be more risk seeking than themselves in risky choices, regardless of whether the choices...

This study aims to refine unemployment forecasts by incorporating the degree of consensus in consumers’ expectations. With this objective, we first model the unemployment rate in eight European countries using the step-wise algorithm proposed by Hyndman and Khandakar (J Stat Softw...

This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other...

This collection of papers analyzes the versatility and predictive power of survey expectations data in asset pricing and macroeconomic forecasting. The first paper, Using Sentiment Surveys to Predict GDP Growth and Stock Returns sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

In many countries the demand for health care services is of increasing importance. Especially in the industrialized world with a changing demographic structure social insurances and politics face real challenges. Reliable predictors of those demand functions will therefore become invaluable...

Policymakers, firms, and investors closely monitor traditional survey-based consumer confidence indicators and treat it as an important piece of economic information. We propose a latent factor model for the vector of monthly survey-based consumer confidence and daily sentiment embedded in...

Reinforcement learning theory has produced important insights into economic behavior. Intriguingly, neuroscientists recently discovered a plausible mechanism through which reinforcement may be encoded in the brain. Yet their resulting quot;dopaminergic reward prediction errorquot; hypothesis has...