We find that an increase in the ``unusualness'' of news with negative sentiment predicts an increase in stock market volatility. Similarly, unusual positive news forecasts lower volatility. Our analysis is based on more than 360,000 articles on 50 large financial companies, published in...

This research investigates Value Line short-horizon and long-horizon earnings and stock price forecasts. From 1987-1998, Value Line analysts issued optimistic quarterly and annual EPS forecasts. This is consistent with prior research showing that analysts generally issued upwardly biased...

Using a novel equity lending dataset, this paper is the first to show that expected returns strongly and negatively predict future equity lending fees. In comparing two expected return measures, I find that a rational expected return has stronger predictive power of future short selling activity...

Stock market fundamentals would not seem to meaningfully predict returns over a shorter-term horizon - instead, I shift focus to severe downside risk (i.e., crashes). I use the cointegrating relationship between the log S&P Composite Index and log earnings over 1871 to 2015, combined with...

This paper revisits two valuation models based on accounting figures: the Residual Income Valuation (RIV) and Abnormal Earnings Growth (AEG). Our research design has two approaches: i) we demonstrate theoretical integration of both models; and ii) we show in a practical manner that models...

This research examines the use of econometric models to predict the total NAV of an asset allocation mutual fund. In particular, the mutual fund case used is the Vanguard Wellington Fund. This fund maintains a balance between relatively conservative stocks and bonds. The period of the study on...

We analyse the performance of financial market variables in nowcasting Finnish quarterly GDP growth. In particular, we assess if prediction accuracy is affected by the sampling frequency of the financial variables. Therefore, we apply MIDAS models that allow us to nowcast quarterly GDP growth...

We analyse the performance of financial market variables in nowcasting Finnish quarterly GDP growth. Especially, we assess if prediction accuracy is affected by the sampling frequency of the financial variables. Therefore, we apply MIDAS models that allow us to forecast quarterly GDP growth...

We analyse the performance of financial market variables in nowcasting Finnish quarterly GDP growth. In particular, we assess if prediction accuracy is affected by the sampling frequency of the financial variables. Therefore, we apply MIDAS models that allow us to nowcast quarterly GDP growth...