This article shows how the recovery of inflation in 2009-10 occurred precisely at the only time (since 1985) the models … would predict disinflation, i.e., inflation went up when the models said it should go down …

What is the probability of high inflation; how high, when? These questions are important to all investors since even … characterizes this as The War On Savers. Higher inflation is possible, at 4% or more, with even worse effects. There are heated … debates about the probability and timing of high inflation, but our review of the extensive literature reveals no reliable way …

This paper addresses the challenge of inflation forecasting by adopting a thick modeling approach that integrates … inflation volatility. By pooling insights from diverse modeling frameworks, this study provides a robust and effective strategy … for improving inflation forecasts across different horizons. …

structure of the population contains information correlated to medium-term trends in growth, inflation and other macroeconomic … available after (at least) a one-year lag. Monetary policy is believed to affect inflation with a lag of one or two years … improve on 3-5 years-ahead forecasts of potential GDP and inflation. …

This paper examines, for the Brazilian case, if break-even inflation rates (BEIR) extracted from fixed income … securities is an unbiased estimator of consumer inflation, measured by the CPI. Our estimates suggest that BEIRs are informative … about future inflation, especially for the maturity of three months. The main innovation of our work, however, is the method …

), inflation and money supply growth, while oft studied, is one that remains unclear. We argue that the nature of the relation …. Notably, a predominantly negative correlation with bond yields and inflation becomes positive, while the opposite is true for … power switches temporarily to positive around economic shocks. This suggests that higher yields, inflation and money growth …