Showing 1 - 10 of 11
In this paper, we examine the predictive ability of automatic and expert-rated media sentiment indicators for German inflation. We find that sentiment indicators are competitive in providing inflation forecasts against a large set of common macroeconomic and financial predictors. Sophisticated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012956134
Expectations form the basis of economic decisions of market participants in an uncertain world. Sentiment indicators reflect those expectations and thus have a proven track record for predicting economic variables. However, respondents of surveys perceive the world to a large extent with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013051847
Expectations form the basis of economic decisions of market participants in an uncertain world. Sentiment indicators reflect those expectations and thus have a proven track record for predicting economic variables. However, respondents of surveys perceive the world to a large extent with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010367175
In an uncertain world, decisions by market participants are based on expectations. Thus, sentiment indicators reflecting expectations are proven at predicting economic variables. However, survey respondents largely perceive the world through media reports. Typically, crude media information,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010373681
The use of log-transformed data has become standard in macroeconomic forecasting with VAR models. However, its appropriateness in the context of out-of-sample forecasts has not yet been exposed to a thorough empirical investigation. With the aim of filling this void, a broad sample of VAR models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010417636
Given the relatively low computational effort involved, vector autoregressive (VAR) models are frequently used for macroeconomic forecasting purposes. However, the usually limited number of observations obliges the researcher to focus on a relatively small set of key variables, possibly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008858940
The use of log-transformed data has become standard in macroeconomic forecasting with VAR models. However, its appropriateness in the context of out-of-sample forecasts has not yet been exposed to a thorough empirical investigation. With the aim of filling this void, a broad sample of VAR models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008858946
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376386
In this paper, we examine the predictive ability of automatic and expert-rated media sentiment indicators for German inflation. We find that sentiment indicators are competitive in providing inflation forecasts against a large set of common macroeconomic and financial predictors. Sophisticated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011644446
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011860603